On 8th July 2023, our school invited Dr. Li Nan, an internationally renowned demographer and former senior technical officer of the United Nations Population Division, to give an academic report entitled "A More Realistic Perspective on Population Aging". Teachers and students of related disciplines of our school and outstanding summer camp students of public management discipline of Business School attended the seminar. The seminar was presided over by president Ding Xiaodong.
Report presided over by Ding Xiaodong
Li Nan introduced a new population aging measurement indicator for the widely concerned issue of population aging--Non-labor-force dependency ratio, NLDR, and made NLDR a differentiated comparison with the traditional Old-age dependency ratio (OADR) for evaluating population aging. He pointed out that compared to the traditional OADR index, NLDR considers the increase in the labor participation rate, which can more accurately describe and predict the burden of population aging. Based on the United Nations population forecast data and the Lee-Carter method, he predicted the change of NLDR in G7 countries before 2050 and found that the increase of NLDR was smaller than that of OADR. Because OADR ignored the increase in labor force participation rate, its description of the aging population of G7 countries in the past was untrue. Predictions were likely to be equally untrue in the future, and understanding the conditions and reasons for the increase in labor force participation can provide valuable insights into population aging.
Report by Li Nan
Mi Hong, professor of the School of Public Management of Zhejiang University, Zhao Laijun dean of Business School, Niu Hai, vice dean of the School of Marxism, Luo Guofen, associate professor of the Department of Public Management, and others of our university participated in in-depth discussions and exchanges with Li Nan on issues related to population aging, such as labor willingness, labor type, labor participation rate, employment methods, population growth, social security, etc.
Discussion and Exchange
Ding Xiaodong emphasized that teacher Li Nan's report provided a very good research perspective for everyone, and participating teachers and students should stand on the shoulders of giants to further improve and develop teacher Li Nan's theory and methods. He pointed out that in scientific research, we should strengthen the research of quantitative analysis theory and method, strengthen the cross-integration of system science with management science and other disciplines, master the ideas and methods of system science, establish system thinking, and adhere to the concept of system.
Speech by Ding Xiaodong
Seminar site
After the report, Li Nan took a group photo with the outstanding students who participated in the summer camp of Public Management.
Group photo
[Related Introduction] In 1984, Dr. Li Nan entered the Business School of Xi 'an Jiaotong University to study for a doctorate degree in management engineering under the guidance of academician Wang Yingluo and demographer professor Jiang Zhenghua. After graduation in 1988, he served as lecturer, associate professor, professor, and doctoral supervisor of the Institute of Population and Economics of Xi 'an Jiaotong University. After that, he went abroad to work at Stanford University, Max Planck Institute in Germany, Duke University in the United States, and the United Nations Population Division. He is an internationally renowned mathematical demographer who has published more than 50 articles in Science, Nature, and other top international academic journals, and his academic influence is worldwide.
Translated by: Bai Yuting
Reviewed by: Wang Yaopeng
